HQ team
November 9, 2024: The year 2024 is well on its way to being recorded as the hottest on record, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
This significant increase reflects a broader trend where global temperatures are consistently exceeding pre-industrial levels, with this October standing at 1.65°C above these historical averages. Experts now assert that it is virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record, with projections indicating that the average temperature anomaly for the remainder of the year would need to drop to nearly zero to prevent this milestone.
“Today, the WMO and partners tell us that 2024 is on track to be the hottest year ever recorded — almost two months before it ends,” said Antonio Guterres, the secretary general of the United Nations in a WMO press statement. “Humanity’s torching the planet and paying the price,” he added.
Notably, this month marks the 15th time in the last 16 months that global average temperatures have surpassed the critical threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels
The average surface air temperature reached 15.25°C, which is 0.80°C above the average for the period from 1991 to 2020.
Yearly trends and projections
The global-average temperature for the twelve months from November 2023 to October 2024 was approximately 0.74°C above the 1991-2020 average and an estimated 1.62°C above the pre-industrial average (1850-1900). The first ten months of 2024 alone recorded an average anomaly of 0.71°C, making it the highest on record for this period and 0.16°C warmer than the same timeframe in 2023.
Regional highlights
In Europe, the average temperature for October was 10.83°C, marking it as the fifth warmest October on record for the continent and 1.23°C above its historical average. While many regions in Europe experienced above-average temperatures, notable exceptions included central Greenland and Iceland, where temperatures were significantly lower than normal.
Outside Europe, regions such as northern Canada and much of the central and western United States also reported well-above-average temperatures. Japan experienced its warmest October since records began in 1898, while Australia noted its second warmest October on record.
Sea surface temperature and ice extent
The average sea surface temperature (SST) for October 2024 was recorded at 20.68°C, making it the second-highest value for this month ever documented—just 0.10°C below last year’s record. Although there are indications of a transition towards La Niña conditions in parts of the Pacific, SSTs remain unusually high across many regions.
Arctic sea ice extent reached its fourth lowest level for October, 19% below average, while Antarctic sea ice was also notably low, 8% below average.
Impacts
The ongoing rise in global temperatures has led to severe weather events, including heavy rainfall and flash flooding in regions like Valencia, Spain, resulting in over 200 fatalities this month alone.
Samantha Burgess from the Copernicus Climate Change Service emphasized that these alarming trends should prompt heightened concerns and pushes at upcoming climate conferences like COP29. Immediate and effective measures are essential to mitigate further impacts of climate change and manage its consequences on both human populations and natural ecosystems.
