HQ Team
June 23, 2023: The global population of people living with diabetes may more than double to 1.3 billion from the current 529 million in the next 30 years, according to researchers at the University of Washington.
At the current prevalence rate of 6.1%, diabetes is one of the top ten leading causes of death and disability, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, a research institute working in the area of global health statistics and impact evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle stated.
Using the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study, researchers examined the prevalence, morbidity, and mortality of diabetes for 204 countries and territories.
They looked at data on diabetes by age and sex between 1990 and 2021. The researchers also provided estimates of type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes and quantified the proportion of type 2 burden attributable to 16 risk factors.
‘Ischemic heart disease’
“The rapid rate at which diabetes is growing is not only alarming but also challenging for every health system in the world, especially given how the disease also increases the risk for ischemic heart disease and stroke,” said Dr Liane Ong, lead author.
The general belief is that type 2 diabetes was associated with obesity, lack of exercise, and a poor diet. Preventing and controlling diabetes was quite complex due to a number of factors.
“That includes someone’s genetics, as well as logistical, social, and financial barriers within a country’s structural system, especially in low- and middle-income countries,” Dr Liane said.
The current global prevalence rate is 6.1%. The highest rate is 9.3% in North Africa and the Middle East, and that number is projected to jump to 16.8% by 2050. The rate in Latin America and the Caribbean is projected to increase to 11.3%.
65 and older
Diabetes was evident in people aged 65 and older in every country and recorded a prevalence rate of more than 20% for that demographic bracket.
The highest rate was 24.4% for those between ages 75 and 79. The study stated that North Africa and the Middle East had the highest rate at 39.4% in this age group, while Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia had the lowest rate at 19.8%.
Almost 96% of the global cases are type 2 diabetes. High body mass index was the primary risk for type 2 – accounting for 52.2% of diabetic disability and mortality.
It was followed by dietary risks, environmental, and occupational risks, tobacco use, low physical activity, and alcohol use.
Treatment availability
“Some people might be quick to focus on one or a few risk factors, but that approach doesn’t take into account the conditions in which people are born and live that create disparities worldwide,” said Lauryn Stafford, second author of the study.
“Those inequities ultimately impact people’s access to screening and treatment and the availability of health services. That’s precisely why we need a more complete picture of how diabetes has been impacting populations at a granular level.”
The study, published in the Lancet, included researchers from the research institute, and Global Burden of Disease collaborators from around the world. It was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
