Bharti Jayshankar
March 24, 2025: Brazilian pharmaceutical giant Hypera announced plans to introduce a generic version of semaglutide—the active ingredient in Novo Nordisk’s blockbuster drug Ozempic—in 2026. This move, revealed by Hypera’s CEO Breno de Oliveira during a call with analysts following the company’s fourth-quarter results, will capitalize on the expiration of Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide patent in Brazil, set for March 2026.
As demand for Ozempic soars globally for its dual use in managing type 2 diabetes and promoting weight loss, Hypera’s entry into this lucrative market could reshape access and pricing in Latin America’s largest economy.
Hypera’s strategic move
Hypera, a São Paulo-based firm known for its dominance in Brazil’s over-the-counter (OTC) medication sector, is gearing up to launch its generic semaglutide as soon as the patent expires. “We are working to launch it as soon as the patent expires, and we are very optimistic about this product from next year,” Oliveira told analysts, signaling confidence in the company’s ability to swiftly bring the drug to market. This optimism is bolstered by Hypera’s track record of rapidly launching generic drugs post-patent expiration, such as anticoagulants rivaroxaban and apixaban.
Unlike traditional generics, Oliveira noted that the pricing dynamics for semaglutide might not follow the steep declines seen in other categories. “We do not expect such a large degradation of this category in the short term,” he said, attributing this to higher production costs and limited availability of injection pens—key delivery mechanisms for semaglutide. This suggests Hypera anticipates maintaining a premium price point relative to other generics, reflecting the complexity of manufacturing and distributing this GLP-1 receptor agonist.
The announcement sparked immediate market enthusiasm, with Hypera’s shares surging 7% on March 21, 2025, making it the top gainer on Brazil’s Bovespa index. Analysts from XP Investimentos echoed this positivity, stating in a February report that the patent expiration would add a “fast-growing segment” to Hypera’s portfolio, with increased sales volume potentially offsetting any price drops.
Competitive landscape in Brazil
Hypera isn’t alone in eyeing the semaglutide market. At least four companies have submitted registration requests to Brazil’s health regulator, Anvisa, for semaglutide-based drugs. Among them is Biomm, which in 2024 secured a licensing and supply agreement with India’s Biocon to commercialize a generic Ozempic in Brazil. Other players, such as EMS and Eurofarma, are also positioning themselves to enter the GLP-1 analogs market, which generated over R$3 billion (approximately $541 million USD) in Brazil from September 2023 to September 2024, according to IQVIA data.
Novo Nordisk, meanwhile, is fighting to extend its semaglutide patent beyond March 2026, arguing that the molecule’s development required significant investment—$2.6 billion on average for a new drug, per the company’s claims. However, with Brazil’s Federal Supreme Court upholding the 2026 expiration, the stage is set for a wave of generic competition.
Ozempic, the ‘Blue phenomenon’
Ozempic, launched by Novo Nordisk in 2017, has become a pharmaceutical phenomenon, driven by its efficacy in controlling blood sugar in type 2 diabetes and its off-label use for weight loss.
Globally, Ozempic generated $8.5 billion in sales in 2022, with the U.S. accounting for 65% ($5.525 billion). By 2023, Novo Nordisk’s total sales reached $28.4 billion, with Ozempic contributing roughly 40% ($11.36 billion), per industry estimates. Projections suggest Ozempic sales could hit $17 billion annually by 2029.
In Brazil, Ozempic sales totaled R$3.1 billion ($541.56 million USD) in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39% from 2021 to 2023, according to Biomm’s citation of IQVIA data. By mid-2024, the GLP-1 analogs market, including Ozempic, reached R$3.7 billion, underscoring its growing popularity.
In the U.S., Ozempic prescriptions surged to 2.2 million in 2022, an 857% increase from 2019. Notably, 25% of these were for non-diabetic patients seeking weight loss, despite lacking official approval for this indication.
In Brazil, Ozempic’s appeal extends beyond diabetes management. Priced at around R$1,000 ($175 USD) per pack in major retail chains, it has gained traction among São Paulo’s financial elite for its appetite-suppressing effects, a trend dubbed “the blue pen” phenomenon.
Nova Nordisk’s race to save its pole position
Producing semaglutide is complex, requiring specialized equipment and facilities. Novo Nordisk’s primary manufacturing occurs in Denmark and the U.S., with a $4.1 billion investment announced in 2024 to expand its North Carolina facility to meet demand. Brazil hosts a strategic insulin production unit in Montes Claros, but it’s not a hub for innovative drugs like Ozempic.
Hypera has not disclosed specific manufacturing details for its generic, but its existing infrastructure and swift launch history suggest readiness to scale production locally or through partnerships.
Brazil’s pharmaceutical market, the largest in Latin America, reached $17 billion in sales in 2021, with generics comprising 29.4% ($5.2 billion), per GlobalData. The entry of generic semaglutide could further boost this segment, especially as obesity affects over 20% of Brazil’s 212 million population, per IBGE data.
Hypera’s generic Ozempic could democratize access to semaglutide in Brazil, where the high cost of the branded drug limits availability through the public Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS).
However, challenges loom as competition from Biomm, EMS, and others could drive costs down by an estimated 25%, per Goldman Sachs’ analysis of similar markets like China.
The global shortage of Ozempic, exacerbated by TikTok-driven demand in 2022, highlights supply chain vulnerabilities. Hypera must ensure a steady supply of injection pens, a bottleneck noted by Oliveira.
Also, Anvisa’s approval process and potential legal challenges from Novo Nordisk could delay the 2026 rollout.
As Novo Nordisk braces for competition, the interplay of sales growth (from $8.5 billion in 2022 to a projected $17 billion by 2029) and local manufacturing dynamics will shape the future of diabetes and obesity treatment in Brazil.
