HQ Team
February 27, 2025: West Africa’s cocoa-producing region is facing a climate crisis, with rising temperatures, threatening the quantity and quality of cocoa harvests, according to a new report by Climate Central.
This may result in a significant rise in global chocolate prices, affecting consumers worldwide and devastating local economies in Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Nigeria. The four West African countries are responsible for approximately 70% of the world’s cacao production, the key ingredient in chocolate.
Rising temperatures impact on cocoa production
The primary growing seasons in major cocoa-producing countries like Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana are experiencing more frequent hot days, further threatening yields. Climate change has led to at least three additional weeks of temperatures above 32°C annually during the main crop season in these regions. Such temperatures are above the optimal temperature range for cacao trees.
Rising temperatures also affect pollinators, which are crucial for cocoa production. Low pollination rates, often below 20%, further reduce yields
The report’s analysis of daily maximum temperatures over the past decade reveals a concerning trend. Climate change has contributed to:
- Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana: At least three additional weeks per year with temperatures exceeding 32°C (89.6°F), which is above the optimal range for cacao trees.
- Cameroon: Just over two additional weeks above 32°C annually during the main crop season.
- Nigeria: More than one additional week above 32°C annually during the main crop season.
In 2024, a staggering 71% of cacao-producing areas across Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria experienced six weeks’ worth of days above 32°C due to human-caused climate change.
The UN said that Ghana’s 2024 drought affected more than 1 million people, and resulted in terrible crop losses and record-high food prices. According to a study by World Weather Attribution, climate change made the heatwave in West Africa 10 times more likely.
Economic and consumer impacts
While factors like precipitation and pests can influence cacao harvests, excessive heat can significantly reduce both the quantity and quality of the crop. This translates to supply chain disruptions.
The decrease in cocoa production leads to shortages, causing a surge in cocoa prices. This has resulted in a 400% increase in cocoa prices in recent years.
Exporters in major cocoa-producing countries like Côte d’Ivoire have faced challenges in meeting contractual obligations due to insufficient cocoa supplies.
Higher cocoa costs are passed on to consumers, leading to increased chocolate prices. This has resulted in a 17% rise in chocolate prices over two years. Rising prices may lead to decreased demand, affecting the profitability of chocolate manufacturers.
Chocolate prices could rise by 50% or more by 2030 due to supply shortages, according to the report. Smallholder farmers, who rely on cocoa for 80% of their income, face deepening poverty.
As cocoa becomes scarcer and harder to produce, the cost of chocolate products is expected to rise, impacting consumers worldwide. West African communities that rely on cocoa farming as a primary source of income will face economic hardship as yields decline.
The report emphasizes the urgent need to address climate change to protect the future of cocoa production and the livelihoods of those who depend on it. Major funding for the report was provided by the Bezos Earth Fund.
