HQ Team
March 8, 2025: A study published in The Lancet by the Global Burden of Disease Study BMI Collaborators reveals alarming statistics about the state of obesity globally. The dire forecast is that without immediate policy intervention, over half of the world’s adult population (3.8 billion) and a third of children and adolescents (746 million) could be overweight or obese by 2050.
The analysis, spanning 204 countries, warns of catastrophic health and economic consequences, including surges in diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and cancers, disproportionately impacting low- and middle-income nations.
A growing crisis
In 2021, 2.11 billion adults (43% globally) were overweight or had obesity, up from 731 million in 1990. By 2050, this could rise to 3.8 billion (57% of men, 60% of women).
Childhood and adolescent obesity tripled between 1990 and 2021, affecting 174 million. By 2050, 360 million young people (5–24 years) could have obesity—a 121% increase.
Oceania, North Africa, and the Middle East face extreme rates, with over 70% of adults in Tonga and Nauru already affected. Sub-Saharan Africa’s cases could triple to 522 million by 2050.
Lead author Professor Emmanuela Gakidou (University of Washington) called the trend a “profound tragedy,” driven by systemic failures to address unhealthy diets, sedentary lifestyles, and aggressive marketing of processed foods. Younger generations are gaining weight faster, raising risks of early-onset chronic diseases. For example, obesity rates among men born in 2015 are projected to triple compared to those born in the 1960s.
Nigeria’s adult cases may triple to 141 million by 2050, straining healthcare systems already battling infectious diseases.
In Asia, China and India will have the highest absolute numbers (627 million and 450 million adults, respectively).
The USA leads with 42% of men and 46% of women living with obesity in 2021.
Immediate policy reform
Co-author Dr. Jessica Kerr (Murdoch Children’s Research Institute) stressed that preventing a “complete transition to global obesity” requires urgent, tailored strategies. She suggests regulating the marketing of ultra processed food. Promoting physical activities by investing in urban green spaces and school sports facilities. Prioritizing breastfeeding support and prenatal nutrition.
Most importantly, governments need to address socio-economic drivers, particularly in marginalized communities.
The study urges 5-year national action plans (2025–2030) to align with post-2030 Sustainability development goals (SDGs). Authors highlight the need to balance obesity prevention with tackling undernutrition in low-income regions.
Limitations and challenges
While the study uses robust data, reliance on BMI (which doesn’t account for ethnic variations) and exclusion of emerging treatments like GLP-1 medications may affect forecasts. Thorkild I.A. Sørensen (University of Copenhagen), in a linked comment, emphasized that reversing obesity requires “public health interventions addressing macro-level drivers,” though rolling back decades of environmental shifts remains daunting.
“This is no time for business as usual,” said Dr. Kerr. With obesity rates accelerating fastest in Latin America, North Africa, and Oceania, governments must act now to avert intergenerational health crises and unsustainable economic burdens.
The study is published in The Lancet: Global Burden of Disease Study
