HQ Team
March 10, 2025: A recent study published in The BMJ forecasts a significant rise in Parkinson’s disease cases globally, with projections of over 25 million living with the condition by 2050. This represents a 112% increase from 2021, primarily driven by population aging, which accounts for 89% of the growth, followed by population growth at 20%, and changes in prevalence at 3%.
The study, led by Dongning Su, MD, predicts a 76% increase in the overall prevalence of Parkinson’s disease by 2050, with an age-standardized prevalence increase of 55%
East Asia is expected to have the highest number of cases, while Western Sub-Saharan Africa will experience the most significant percentage increase.
The male-to-female ratio of age-standardized prevalence is projected to rise from 1.46 in 2021 to 1.64 by 2050.
Countries in the middle fifth of the socio-demographic index are anticipated to see the largest percentage increases in both all-age and age-standardized prevalence.
For the analysis, the researchers used data from Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 to estimate overall, age-, sex- and year-specific prevalence of Parkinson’s disease across 195 countries and territories from 2021 to 2050.
Drivers of increase in Parkinson’s
Population aging is the primary driver of the projected increase in Parkinson’s disease cases. As the global population ages, the number of individuals at risk for neurodegenerative diseases like Parkinson’s naturally rises. Additionally, lifestyle factors such as physical activity and smoking cessation may influence future prevalence rates, though the latter might paradoxically increase prevalence due to longer life expectancy.
The risk of Parkinson’s disease is influenced by interactions between genetic predispositions and environmental exposures. While genetics alone may not cause the disease, they can increase susceptibility to environmental toxins
Disease dynamics prediction models
The study highlights the need for advanced modeling techniques to better predict disease dynamics and guide healthcare planning. A comprehensive forecast of the prevalence of Parkinson’s disease is critical “as it plays a crucial role in gaining insights into future epidemic patterns, facilitating proactive management, enabling informed policy decisions, and guiding public health interventions,” Dongning Su, from Capital Medical University in China, and colleagues wrote.
Recent research emphasizes the importance of using comprehensive data sources like the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 to inform projections. As Parkinson’s disease becomes a growing public health challenge, there is an urgent need for enhanced research efforts to address the rising number of cases worldwide.
“Given the inevitable population ageing, population growth, and disability experienced by individuals with Parkinson’s disease owing to its chronic nature, an urgent need exists for future research to focus on the development of novel drugs, gene engineering techniques, and cell replacement therapies that are aimed at modifying the course of the disease and improving patients’ quality of life,” the researchers noted.
