HQ Team
August 12, 2025: A study published in the journal Global Change Biology has revealed that lightning kills approximately 320 million trees worldwide each year, a figure significantly higher than previously estimated. The research found that trees killed directly by lightning release around one billion tons of carbon dioxide yearly, accounting for 2.1 to 2.9 percent of all plant biomass loss annually.
The research, led by Andreas Krause from the Technical University of Munich, indicates that the tree loss numbers could increase in the coming decades as global warming contributes to more frequent and intense lightning events.
Current impact of lightning on tree mortality
The study combined on-the-ground observations with global lightning data to model the number of trees lost annually to lightning strikes. The emission of nearly one billion ton of carbon in the atmosphere is equivalent to Japan’s annual emissions. This highlights the significant role lightning-related tree mortality plays in global carbon cycles.
While earlier studies focused on field observations in individual forests, the TUM researchers took a mathematical approach. They extended a widely used global vegetation model by integrating observational data and global lightning patterns. “We’re now able not only to estimate how many trees die from lightning strikes annually, but also to identify the regions most affected and assess the implications for global carbon storage and forest structure,” explains Andreas Krause, lead author of the study
The findings also suggest that lightning is currently most deadly to trees in tropical regions, particularly in Africa. However, higher latitudes may face an increasing threat as the climate warms.
Changing patterns and future projections
According to the research, most climate models project an increase in lightning frequency in the coming decades. This is attributed to the expectation of more hot and humid weather conditions, which are conducive to lightning formation. The study warns that regions in the Far North, including parts of Canada, Russia, and the northern United States, could experience a significant rise in lightning-related tree mortality.
The authors caution that while past studies have struggled to accurately determine which trees were struck by lightning, their new approach provides a clearer picture of the global impact. They emphasize the importance of paying closer attention to this often-overlooked disturbance.
Broader implications
Lightning strikes not only kill trees directly but also contribute to wildfires, which can cause additional tree mortality and carbon emissions. The study focused solely on trees killed directly by lightning, but the associated risk of wildfires further exacerbates the ecological impact.
Increased tree mortality reduces the overall biomass of forests, thereby decreasing their capacity to take in and store carbon. As more trees die, fewer remain to absorb carbon dioxide during photosynthesis. This can lead to a net increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, exacerbating climate change.
Dead trees and fallen branches release the carbon they’ve stored back into the atmosphere through decomposition or combustion in wildfires. While large fallen logs and branches can act as significant carbon sinks due to their lower surface-area-to-volume ratio, which slows decomposition, especially when submerged in water. This carbon is still vulnerable to being released back into the atmosphere over time. In many Western US forests, the increase in dead carbon (stored in dead trees and woody debris) has been significant, with decomposition and wildfires adding to carbon emissions.
The researchers stress that understanding and monitoring lightning-related tree mortality is crucial for accurately assessing carbon budgets and ecosystem resilience in the face of climate change. As forests play a vital role in carbon sequestration, increased tree mortality from lightning could have far-reaching consequences for global climate goals.
The study serves as a wake-up call to the scientific community and policymakers alike. As the planet continues to warm, the escalating frequency of lightning strikes and their impact on tree mortality could significantly alter forest dynamics and carbon cycles. Addressing this challenge requires a better understanding of the complex interplay between climate change and lightning activity and the development of strategies to mitigate the associated ecological impacts.
